I now feel confident enough that the end is coming for Liz Truss that I can write and publish this. I’ve thought for a while about how awful she is at speaking, campaigning, governing, and decision making – all the things that are absolutely essential for a Prime Minister. On top of that, she’s polling at around 20% (with another big result expected at 5pm today from Redfield & Wilton), and there’s rumours that there’s 100 no confidence letters already sent to Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 19222 Committee. This is not something any Prime Minister has survived.
Prime Ministers very rarely get formally pushed out, so while it’s worth bearing in mind that the letters formally can’t be used to oust her, she is likely to choose resigning with some sort of grace over the alternative option – the 1922 Committee having to change their rules to allow themselves to sack you after less than 2 months probably looks worse than saying “It’s clear my ideology isn’t what was needed at the time I was elected, and so I will be offering my resignation to the King.” And, in that sense, I believe that where there is serious and growing doubt that she will survive, that means the decision has already been made.
Jeremy Hunt is expected to entirely reverse Liz Truss’ mini budget, which comes after she put her confidence in Kwasi Kwarteng only to be forced into sacking him. This will look better for Hunt than it will for Truss – and it is quite something when a Chancellor who has been in the job for 2 days and was one of the most unpopular Health Secretaries in living memory announces tax rises and spending cuts, and comes out of it in a better position than the Prime Minister. He’s fixing somebody else’s mess, but Truss’ constant presence through the two Chancellorships and her endorsement of the mini-budget means for her it’s too late.
She has only a mandate from Conservative members, remember. She wasn’t the first choice for MPs for leader – in fact, she came third behind Penny Morduant for the first four of five MP ballots. And, whilst we do formally have a parliamentary democracy where people vote for individual MPs to make the decision for them, it would be foolish to pretend that Boris Johnson isn’t the man who won the 2019 election for the Conservatives, with Jeremy Corbyn being the man who lost it for Labour. Whilst her government has a public mandate, her Premiership does not, and she tell MPs that she won them their seats in a way that Boris Johnson could.
Hunt is also expected to limit Truss’ energy support package. This is the only place where she has the upper hand on Labour at the moment; in PMQs, you will often find her saying “We’re commiting to support for 2 years – Labour’s plan only lasts six months!” If that commitment of 2 years is no commitment at all and entirely dependent on who went in the metaphorical revolving door at Number 11 in the last month or two, where is her upper hand against Labour? It is not funding public services, nor is it low tax, nor is it honesty, nor is it sound decision making, nor is it fiscal responsibility and a strong economy, nor is it stable leadership, nor is it having a likeable leader.
Hunt may be making better economic decisions than Kwarteng, and might even boost his own ratings if he says he’s making tough decisions to clean up the last guy’s mess. But, in doing so he will deliver a fatal blow to Liz Truss that will show within the next fortnight as her economic policy is dismantled by her own party, making her the shortest serving Prime Minister by some considerable distance in modern history. A Conservative Chancellor cleaning up a Conservative mess (against the fundamental ideology of the Conservative Prime Minister) caused by a Conservative Chancellor appointed by a Conservative Prime Minister is not a good luck for the Conservative Party, and it’s much worse for Liz Truss. Her lack of a Parliamentary mandate is coming for her.
Lewis Compton 