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Is Andy Burnham Britain’s Mark Carney?

Andy Burnham and Mark Carney share a number of similarities as political heavyweights and recently selected Prime Ministers. Will Burnham’s success follow Carney’s?

Andy Burnham and Mark Carney share a number of similarities as political heavyweights and recently selected Prime Ministers. Both became leader of their parties with overwhelming support and little serious opposition. Neither were longstanding Members of Parliament when elected Prime Minister. Both became leader of left wing governing parties, replacing a deeply unpopular leader. Neither was forecast to perform well at the next election.

Both are good listeners to the extent of disapproving of their Parliamentary party’s own legislation, acting in an almost Presidential fashion. Upon his election, Mark Carney nullified the Liberal government’s previous carbon tax, said yes to new fossil fuel development, and campaigned to address immigration. Upon his election, Andy Burnham removed VAT on electricity bills, has promised to be “pragamtic” on new fossil fuel development, and campaigned to address small boat crossings.

In Canada, the Liberal Party was trailing in the polls until a couple of things became clear. One, there was a change of direction at the top, and a leader who was in touch with the public. Two, foreign policy had a unifying effect on Canadians against a foreign opponent (remarkably, in the United States). Andy Burnham has secured the former, and the latter may come into play with rising tensions in Argentina, increasing threats from Russia, and wider geopolitical recalibration. A “rally round the flag” effect present challenging circumstances for a Prime Minister and few would like to be in that position, but the effect on their polling is undoubtable. Just look at Boris Johnson’s polling during the COVID pandemic.

Andy Burnham also has another gift which perhaps aids him further in his quest to replicate Carney’s success in Canada. That is, he is an excellent communicator. There are two pictures below – one of Keir Starmer’s speech to Labour conference in 2025, and another of Andy Burnham’s in 2026. I have chosen images which are perhaps more evocative of my point, but it stands – Keir Starmer was like a politician. He stood behind a podium and lectured. Andy Burnham is not. He engages with people and has a gift of appearing to be on the same level as them.

This is not to say the podium is the mark of a poor leader – it isn’t. Blair and Carney spoke behind one, as did Boris Johnson. But it does demonstrate skill as an orator and an ability to connect with the electorate.

Burnham and Carney share one other thing, and I argue that it is the thing driving the rise of the populist right (and to a lesser extent, the left) across the Western World. This is that the recent years have belonged to, in my eyes, outsiders. Trump, Farage, the AfD, Le Pen, and even Boris Johnson. These are people who have been or styled themselves as outsiders, and who have managed to capture people’s legitimate frustrations and turn them towards their political cause. Left-wing politicians have done the same albeit often less successfully – look at Zack Polanski’s appeal amongst young people by capturing what matters for many young people (although with little serious policy proposals). As Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham grew to understood the reasons behind this frustration well, and is therefore well placed to act and speak like an outsider.

Burnham has captured the public mood. The fact his proposals to meet the needs of the people are left-wing don’t, in my eyes, matter to the electorate. It is too easy to fail to remember that most people are not passionately left or right wing, and most people view their own politics as common-sense. When people see good ideas, they tend to like them. Of course there are competing needs between demographics, but knowing what is frustrating people and honestly trying to solve these challenges is a good place to start, and line Andy Burnham up well to emulate Mark Carney’s success.

The breakneck speed of Burnham

I had planned – and mostly written – a blog post on the risks the Labour Party could face in their leadership election process. It would have reflected on Liz Truss and Jeremy Corbyn’s times as leaders of their respective parties, when the position was theirs despite not being the first pick of their Parliamentary parties.

The process of going out to party members would have perhaps been more democratic in that it would reflect the will of such members. The process would have been arguably less democratic and certainly less aligned with the constitution in that the people who must make decisions in Parliament – the MPs – must represent all people, not just party members. They are the ones who, constitutionally, are required to have confidence in the Prime Minister. They are, in my view, the ones whose views matter the most (although not alone given the Labour Party’s rich history of union affiliation and member democracy).

None of this happened in the end and no risk was to be present as Andy Burnham was, as the press says, “coronated” as Prime Minister. I think this is a stretch, but I also don’t think it’s bad. His approach, which he’s described as distinctively Labour, has clearly united the Party, and his comms style – perfected over a decade or so as Mayor of Greater Manchester – has landed well with most audiences.

What is so striking though, is his ability to hit the ground running. Keir Starmer did do this in his first days as Prime Minister but he focused on macro level changes and was quick to deliver bad news.

Statements from Keir Starmer’s first week in office? Important things, but disconnected from people’s everyday lives. Things that make a difference in the long run, yes, but are not things that people will feel here and now:

  • The NHS is broken
  • Home Secretary launches new Border Security Command
  • It’s time to reset Britain’s relations with Europe
  • Chancellor Rachel Reeves is taking immediate action to fix the foundations of our economy
  • Education Secretary begins push to recruit 6,500 new teachers

I’m a Transport Planner, so I’ll also look at the transport commitments:

  • Transport Secretary sets out 5 key priorities to deliver the biggest overhaul to transport in a generation
    • improving performance on the railways and driving forward rail reform
    • improving bus services and growing usage across the country
    • transforming infrastructure to work for the whole country, promoting social mobility and tackling regional inequality
    • delivering greener transport
    • better integrating transport networks.

It will come as no surprise to you that I think these are all outstandingly important and worthwhile interventions. But what can people point at and say “the government did that, and it’s good for me?” This is not to say one is better or more important than the other, but it is to say that one is likely better at winning votes.

What statements have been made during Burnham’s first week in office?

  • New PM says government can bring back hope to Britain, and launches drive to end rough sleeping at earlies opportunity
  • New PM cuts tax on household electricity bills to give breathing space on cost of living
  • Cheaper travel for millions with a third off fares
  • Burnham means business: PM slashes business rates bills for pubs, clubs and live music venues
  • No10 North open for business as the Government’s new situation room for making Britain better

To me, this means a few things. Burnham’s first priority has been on tangible things – rough sleeping, energy bills and bus fares are all things people will notice every day. They’re also things that people can speak about. Perhaps Burnham has had the advantage that no Prime Minister has previously had of being a Metro Mayor. A role that was brand new to him, he delivered a number of highly visible policies which people felt every day. Indeed bus franchising is considerably less visible than the Bee Network, even if they’re exactly the same thing.

Second, even the less tangible things – business rates and Number 10 North – are well thought through and punchy.

B/siness rates are targeted and good news. It may not have been by design but I also think they feel a bit more tangible as, quite simply, people like pubs and venues. The next sentence is stereotypical and hyperbolic but I hope it illustrates my point. Socially conservative voters will like their local traditional pub; socially liberal voters will like their local progressive venues like LGBTQ+ bars; and middle England will welcome this news for wherever they frequent. It probably feels like Burnham is “for us” for all of these groups.

Number 10 North? Okay, yes, this one is less tangible in the difference it will make to everyday people. However, it’s considerably more tangible in the way that it is – somehow – already up and running.

In the conversations I’ve had over the past few weeks, it is clear that Burnham has got political instincts in a way that Starmer did not. He can communicate with people on a way that feels personal. Communication was never a strong point of Keir Starmer’s government – people scarcely knew of the positives delivered – and I am optimistic that this is resolved under Burnham.

The winter fuel allowance is, in my eyes, an excellent example of Keir Starmer’s approach which didn’t serve him well. There are two statements which I believe to be true at the same time. The first is that older people are the wealthiest generation and it is morally and financially wrong for the money of working people to be sent to wealthy people with no homeownership costs. The second is that older people vote at the highest numbers and were not willing to extend good will to Starmer in this instance. This meant that the policy contributed to a collapse in Starmer’s personal approval ratings and did not yield the long-term savings promised as it was, at least partially, reversed. Poor political instincts.

The benefits of Burnham will hopefully be a reversal of Starmer’s flaws, in a way that is dinstinctly Labour. I look forward to seeing what he delivers.